In 2025, more than one million hectares burned across the EU. In Sardinia, the Mediterranean’s second-largest island, just 0.6% of fires cause over half of the area burned. As summers get hotter and drier, how will fire hazard change across the island, and where?
A team led by researchers from the National Research Council of Italy (CNR) (Salis et al., 2026, Climate change will reshape future wildfire danger and hazard in Sardinia, Italy) compared a historical baseline (1985–2014) with the near future (2035–2064) using:
- Three climate models, downscaled to a 1 km grid.
- Three emissions scenarios: low (SSP1-2.6), intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5).
The authors calculated the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and then simulated tens of thousands of fires at 150 m resolution to map burn probability, fire intensity and area burned, keeping today’s fuels and ignitions.
What did the study find?
Every projection points to a warmer, drier Sardinia, with fire-season maximum temperatures up to 3.9 °C higher. Under the highest-emissions scenario, very high FWI days in May–October roughly double, from about 4–5% to 8–11%.
In two of the three models, the annual area burned roughly doubles under higher-emissions scenarios, reaching 28,000–34,000 ha. Crown fire area grows in step, and hotspots spread from southern Sardinia towards western and inland areas. However, flame length and fire size showed no consistent increase, suggesting that the future will bring more days on which large fires can spread, rather than fiercer fires.
Why does this matter?
Combining danger indices with fire spread simulations shows where exposure will grow, giving planners a sharper tool. Suppression alone will not be enough. Fuel treatments, grazing, prescribed burning, diverse land-use mosaics and fire-aware spatial planning can make landscapes more resilient. The key take-home messages are:
- Sardinia is projected to become warmer and drier by 2035–2064, doubling very high fire danger days and roughly doubling the area burned.
- Hotspots are projected to spread towards western and inland Sardinia.
- Fire spread modelling gives a more realistic picture of future hazard than fire weather indices alone.
- As the climate heats up, managing landscapes before fires start will matter more than ever.
The study was published in Natural Hazards. You can read it in full here.
Full reference
Salis, M., Del Giudice, L., Alcasena-Urdiroz, F., Scarpa, C., Bacciu, V., Pellizzaro, G., Jahdi, R., Duce, P., Monjo, R., Ribalaygua, J., Torres, L., Prado, C., & Arca, B. 2026. Climate change will reshape future wildfire danger and hazard in Sardinia, Italy. Natural Hazards, 122, 629.
